Solid state batteries, regarded as the ultimate form of battery technology, were once the focus of competition in the primary market due to their disruptive potential. Three years ago, the story of a Nature paper winning tens of millions of yuan in angel round financing is still a hot topic in the industry.

However, as the outline of the solid-state battery technology roadmap becomes increasingly clear and the industrialization path is gradually being constructed in new production lines, the current investment enthusiasm in the primary market seems to have shown a subtle "cooling" sign, and the market's attention seems to have slowed down compared to before.

If one is completely cold or biased. After all, key material fields such as sulfide electrolytes and silicon-based anodes still have the favor of capital. Still attracting tangible investment from capital.

For example, in 2024, two sulfide electrolyte startups, Zhongke Solid Energy and Ronggu New Materials, each raised billions of yuan in funding during the angel round stage. In the field of silicon-based negative electrodes, particularly represented by CVD silicon carbon technology, the number of recently announced projects significantly exceeds that of electrolytes and other materials.

Focusing on the battery manufacturing end, behind star projects such as Enli Power and Huineng Technology, there is also continuous support from top tier capital such as Sequoia China and SoftBank China. More noteworthy is that state-owned assets and industrial capital have made unprecedented efforts to layout the solid-state battery industry, deeply integrating into the construction wave of this emerging industrial ecosystem from upstream materials to downstream production lines.

But if it is hot or thriving, there is a gap between the current scene and the previous prosperity.

Solid state battery unicorns Weilan and Qingtao, whose valuations have surpassed the threshold of billions, have entered the market with a strategy of combining semi-solid and all solid state technologies. Despite frequent updates on technology research and market cooperation, these two companies have rarely disclosed any new round of financing information since 2024. This contrasts with the billions of dollars in capacity expansion, which may indicate that the path to monetization is not smooth.

Looking at the industry, it is also rare for new unicorn companies to stand out. Whether the huge capital investment can be converted into considerable operating income within the expected time limit is undoubtedly a realistic and severe test that lies in front of investors.

Another market insider revealed that some early investors in the field of solid-state batteries have begun to explore exit paths in the secondary market, such as privately inquiring and selling old stocks of solid-state battery companies, which to some extent reflects a subtle shift in the primary market's attitude towards solid-state battery investment.

As some investors have expressed doubts, why not choose leading battery companies with established scale, market position, and solid state battery research and development teams, and instead invest funds in solid-state battery startups with small revenue scale, risk coefficient, and valuation level that are difficult to match in the short term? This may represent the current general mentality of some primary market investors.

Why did such a complex situation arise? As the technological roadmap gradually moves towards consensus, does primary market investment actually falter? Behind this, there may be multiple factors intertwined, such as changes in the macroeconomic environment, the evolution of the primary market's own cycle, and the particularity of the development stage of the solid-state battery industry.

Why is the primary market hesitant?

The macro background is that the global macro economy is currently undergoing a critical shift period, and the internal driving force of economic growth is undergoing profound changes. In the past, the extensive development model relied on massive resource input, large-scale capital drive, and the advantage of cheap labor. But to this day, the drawbacks and unsustainability of this model have become clear.

Analysis has pointed out that for a long time, nearly half of the world's mineral resources have been excessively consumed, but only support about 30% of economic output, and the problem of resource misallocation is becoming increasingly serious. At the same time, the trend of aging population is gradually eroding the dividend of cheap labor. In the new stage of the development of the times, if we still adhere to the investment logic of the past, it is obviously difficult to adapt to the changing economic landscape.

An investor stated that simply emphasizing innovation is insufficient, and reducing costs and increasing efficiency will become a more decisive consideration dimension in future investments.

Returning to the solid-state battery industry itself, it needs to be acknowledged that its industrialization path is not smooth. The high research and development costs, long verification cycles, and unclear initial application scenarios of solid-state batteries all make the commercialization of solid-state batteries full of uncertainty, and it is not enough to rely on scientific research teams or academic reputation endorsement to rest assured.

As the first mover advantage of early technological exploration gradually diminishes, will the industry slide towards a convergence of innovation paths and a potential risk of increasingly solidified competitive landscape?

One viewpoint is that in the field of solid-state batteries, the financing environment has always been relatively relaxed, so that companies that obtain funds tend to flock to popular technology directions that have been preliminarily verified by leading companies, such as gas-phase preparation of silicon carbon negative electrodes, "liquid batteries doped with solid electrolytes", etc.

Behind this phenomenon, it may reflect a certain commonality in strategic planning among some enterprises: compared to exploring differentiated innovation paths, they may focus more on pursuing short-term and pragmatic implementation models, striving to make rapid progress in relatively mature fields.

This indicates that as the technological roadmap tends towards consensus, the innovation space and differentiation path of new targets also narrow, making exploration in non consensus directions more confusing.

Finding opportunities in 'non consensus'

Industry insiders further pointed out that the greater value of the primary market compared to the secondary market lies precisely in the mismatch between early investment and later value that only occurs with a certain probability.

Given the continuous warming of the secondary market for solid-state batteries in the past two years, the primary market urgently needs to conduct a more cautious value measurement of solid-state battery projects, considering dimensions including but not limited to: price comparison effect (whether it has a price advantage over the secondary market target), scarcity effect (whether there is a lack of comparable benchmark companies in the secondary market), growth effect (whether the future growth rate far exceeds the secondary market target), etc.

Based on the above, current primary market investment tends to return to "non consensus" areas in order to seek innovative breakthroughs. There is a fundamental difference in investment logic between the primary market and the secondary market. The secondary market focuses more on performance, profitability, and certainty, while the primary market, especially in the early stages of investment, should focus more on "potential disruptive" and "future possibilities".

At present, fields such as lithium sulfide synthesis, dry electrode technology, and lithium metal negative electrodes, which have not yet been finalized in terms of technological routes, have become valuable areas with potential for gold mining in the eyes of the primary market.

Another noteworthy aspect is that compared to financial investment institutions, industrial capital is significantly increasing its investment in the field of solid-state batteries. For example, SAIC Capital continues to support Qingtao, and Changan Automobile directly participates in the B-round financing of Tailan New Energy. State owned institutions are more inclined to actively participate in capacity expansion projects, driven by their value preference for high-end manufacturing.

Some observers believe that investors with industry backgrounds often have advantages that financial investors cannot match, especially in industries with mature supply chain systems such as new energy vehicles, where industry resources, brands, and long-term industry trust are crucial.

For emerging solid-state battery companies, relying solely on capital injection may be difficult to quickly establish market recognition and stable supply chain cooperation relationships. In contrast, strategic investment by industrial investors and the subsequent introduction of resources can often help companies overcome bottlenecks in the early stages of development more effectively.

In addition, industrial investors seem to focus more on long-term strategic layout and overall construction of industrial ecology, and their investment behavior tends to revolve around the goal of "leading ecological construction".

The tide recedes, revealing the reefs. As the early noise of solid-state batteries gradually subsides, perhaps we should once again pursue a cautious focus on primary market investment and refocus on the depths of technology and industrial hinterland.