The "trade in" policy released by the State Council in 2024 encourages the electrification and upgrading of old commercial vehicles. The domestic market size of new energy commercial vehicles will benefit from the explosive growth of the national economy and consumption stimulus policies. According to compulsory traffic insurance data, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles in China from January to April 2024 reached 142000 units, a significant increase of 120% year-on-year. Among them, the sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks from January to April were 16000 units, a year-on-year increase of 129%.

At present, commercial vehicles account for about 11% of the total number of automobiles, but contribute about 75% of greenhouse gas emissions. In 2023, the electrification rate of commercial vehicles in China was less than 10%, while the electrification rate of automobiles in China is already around 35%. Whether from the perspective of potential market size or green environmental protection, it is imperative to promote the electrification of commercial vehicles. The acceleration of the electrification process of commercial vehicles undoubtedly benefits the growth of demand for lithium batteries for commercial vehicles in China.

According to the GGII Institute of Lithium Battery Research, the installed capacity of commercial vehicle power lithium batteries in China was 29.9 GWh in 2023, with a market size of approximately 20 billion yuan. From January to April 2024, the installed capacity of lithium batteries for new energy commercial vehicles in China was 13.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 137%, and it is expected that the annual growth rate will reach 1.5 times. Among them, the installed capacity of new energy heavy-duty truck power batteries was 5.39GWh, a year-on-year increase of 162%. Four power battery enterprises, namely Lanjun New Energy, BYD, Guoxuan High tech, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, all saw significant growth in their supporting installed capacity in the heavy-duty truck field compared to the same period last year.

Installed capacity of lithium-ion batteries in commercial vehicles in China from 2019 to 2023 (GWh)

The main factors currently affecting the penetration rate of new energy in commercial vehicles are: difficulty in energy replenishment and high cost of lithium batteries. With the significant decrease in the cost of lithium batteries from 2023 to 2024, the difficulty of energy replenishment has become the main factor affecting the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles.

To solve the problem of difficulty in energy replenishment, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Juwan Technology Research, Wuling, and Rongcheng Mengguli have successively laid out fast charging lithium batteries for commercial vehicles. Some companies even have a charging rate of 5C or above for their lithium batteries.

With the popularization of fast charging lithium batteries and fast charging networks in commercial vehicles, the efficiency of new energy commercial vehicles is expected to be significantly improved, which will promote the application and promotion of new energy commercial vehicles in the market, thereby driving the growth of the commercial vehicle lithium battery market.