The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has passed, and the high prosperity of the lithium battery industry has continued, with signs of structural improvement.

Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices rose multiple times, with the main contract 2501 surging to 87600 yuan at one point, driving other month contracts to collectively rise to the 80000 yuan range. The spot prices of lithium carbonate from some institutions have also rebounded, and the latest batch of lithium carbonate spot auctions held by Yabao was sold at a price of 83400 yuan/ton.

According to the unchanged pattern of oversupply and the logic that high lithium prices will suppress consumption and stimulate supply, the space for lithium price rebound is still limited. However, the "anti seasonal" strengthening of the demand side related to this price rebound is worth paying attention to.

In the short term, due to the amplification of the subsidy effect of "trade in" for new energy vehicles, the rise of Trump, and the adjustment of battery export tariffs, the demand for lithium batteries has exceeded expectations since November.

Market data shows that the "trade in" policy continues to stimulate, with more than 60% of new energy vehicle subsidy applications, driving the production and sales of new energy vehicles to 9.779 million and 9.75 million respectively from January to October this year, both exceeding the annual production and sales volume of last year, and driving up the expected production and sales volume for 2024 from 11.5 million to 12.5-13 million.

At the same time, on November 6th, the next president of the United States confirmed Trump and strengthened expectations of tariff increases, leading to a defensive early "export rush" in the lithium battery industry chain.

At the macro policy level, in mid November, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the adjustment of export tax rebates for some products starting from December 1st. The export tax rebate rate for lithium batteries and other products will be lowered from 13% to 9%, and the short-term rush for exports may intensify.

In the long run, the signal of demand side reversal comes from the structural adjustment that has been fermenting within the industrial chain for a long time.

Firstly, from the perspective of terminals, in the passenger car sector, as of October, the combined proportion of extended range and plug-in hybrid models in new energy retail has increased to 44%; Among them, the extended range market is showing rapid development, with leading car companies such as Ideal and Sailis experiencing phased outbreaks, while extended range products such as Changan and Zero Run continue to accelerate their growth, driving the shipment of high-capacity extended range batteries.

In the field of commercial vehicles, the sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks reached a new high in October, maintaining year-on-year growth for 21 consecutive months; The year-on-year growth rate in a single month reached 141%, and the year-on-year growth rate has exceeded 100% for 8 consecutive months. The penetration of new energy in segmented fields is strongly driving up the elasticity of lithium battery demand growth.

Secondly, in the battery sector, multiple favorable factors have been concentrated in the market recently.

For top battery manufacturers, there has been a shortage of high-quality production capacity supply based on the demand for fast charging batteries in the third quarter, which has prompted manufacturers to increase their 2025 production schedule and adjust by up to 100 GWh. At the same time, they have signed multiple long-term supply agreements, restarted capital expenditures, and capacity construction plans. This is considered by the industry to be a key action in the reversal of lithium-ion batteries.

For the battery industry as a whole, some new energy vehicle companies continue to streamline their suppliers and begin using exclusive batteries for newly launched models. The Xiaopeng G6, M03, and P7+are exclusively equipped with batteries from China Innovation Aviation, Freddie, and EVE Energy. The implementation of battery supply for a single vehicle model will directly promote the improvement of battery supplier capacity utilization and bring new opportunities for the restructuring of the lithium battery industry chain.

The adjustment of export tariffs for lithium batteries essentially puts forward higher requirements for the capacity utilization and cost control capabilities of related enterprises, and further releases the long-term determination to promote industrial structure optimization.

It is also worth noting that the industry believes that the European new energy market is expected to enter a high prosperity cycle by 2025. 2025 is a key milestone for the EU to reduce the average carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles by 15% compared to 2021. At present, there are still large car companies such as Ford, Volkswagen, and Toyota that have not achieved this goal.

This pressure will drive relevant car companies to increase their investment in electric vehicle models. The substantial promotion of the technology licensing model will bring new changes to the demand ceiling and growth potential of batteries and materials.