The tariff increases radiating from the United States, the implementation of the EU's new battery law regulations, and the policy direction changes that will be triggered by the November US election are the three major stones that have been tightly pressing on the domestic new energy industry this year.

Today, the European Union officially confirmed the imposition of a five-year anti subsidy tariff on electric vehicles imported from China, with tariffs of 35.3%, 18.8%, and 17% imposed on products from SAIC Group, Geely Automobile, and BYD, respectively; For enterprises that are not sampled but cooperate with the survey, the EU will impose a unified tax rate of 20.7%; The final additional tax rate faced by enterprises that do not cooperate with the investigation is 35.3%.

Although China and Europe will still negotiate a price commitment agreement, which aims to avoid tariff increases by raising the selling price of exported trams and limiting export quantities, there are still differences between the two sides on core issues such as determining the minimum price and whether to open up separate price commitment agreements with enterprises.

The tariff policies from the United States and the European Union have actually affected the data performance of the electric vehicle and upstream lithium battery industry chain.

Firstly, in the automotive sector, China's exports of electric vehicles to EU countries have significantly slowed down in the first three quarters of 2024, with pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles experiencing year-on-year declines of 7% and 3%, respectively.

At the same time, exports of pure electric vehicles to Oceania and the United States and Canada saw a year-on-year decline of 35% and 22% respectively, while exports of plug-in hybrid vehicles to Japan and South Korea fell by 57% year-on-year.

Structurally, the export of new energy buses and special-purpose vehicles has declined rapidly, with the growth rate of new energy bus exports slowing down to 7000 units from January to September, unchanged from the same period last year.

In the lithium battery sector, the proportion of power batteries in battery exports continues to decline. In September, the proportion of power batteries decreased by more than 8 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the total export accounted for less than 20% of monthly sales; Compared with the cumulative volume of the previous month, the proportion of power batteries decreased by nearly 3 percentage points from January to September, and the total cumulative export accounted for less than 19% of the cumulative sales volume in the first nine months.

In terms of scale, the export of power batteries in September saw a 5% year-on-year decline, with a year-on-year decrease of about 13% for iron lithium power; From January to September, the cumulative data shows a significant decline in the export of ternary power batteries, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of over 6%.

It is also worth noting that domestic battery companies have shown differentiation in the growth rate of power battery exports: some leading battery companies have accumulated negative growth of over 30% and over 20% in September and the first three quarters respectively, mainly due to the impact of overseas mainstream car companies changing the supply structure of power batteries in North America.

The export performance of different lithium battery materials also shows differentiation.

In September, China's export volume of lithium iron phosphate reached 538 tons, marking the first time since 2017 that the export volume exceeded 500 tons; The month on month increase was 105%, and the year-on-year increase was 1212%, mainly due to the impact of overseas electric vehicle and battery manufacturers promoting the switch to lithium iron phosphate technology route. However, the average export price of lithium iron phosphate continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 70%.

The export volume of ternary materials exceeded 4000 tons during the same period, but decreased both on a month on month basis, mainly due to reduced demand from countries such as South Korea and Japan.

In terms of negative electrode, the export of artificial graphite exceeded 47000 tons in September, coinciding with the peak demand season, but the year-on-year growth rate was only in single digits, and the average export price decreased by 12% month on month and 42% year-on-year. During the same period in natural graphite, the export of flake graphite decreased on a month on month basis, while the export of spherical graphite rings increased and decreased. The fluctuations were affected by some overseas customers preparing for elections and stocking up in advance.

In terms of electrolyte, the export of lithium salt hexafluorophosphate decreased by over 35% month on month and over 50% year-on-year. The changes in export data of electrolyte raw materials more intuitively reflect the decline in overseas demand for lithium battery products.
Under the complex market situation, lithium battery companies are still cautiously and firmly promoting overseas production capacity layout based on real-time adjustments to strategies and methods, in order to seize opportunities in the global new energy market.

In order to diversify battery shipments and avoid trade barriers, new energy vehicle and lithium battery companies are further expanding their production capacity layout in Southeast Asia.

At present, companies such as Aion, BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Nezha have all achieved local operation of new energy vehicles in Southeast Asia. Following this pace, Malaysia has also become a new target for lithium battery companies to explore overseas production capacity.

According to incomplete statistics, Zhuhai Guanyu and EVE Energy have announced plans to build battery factories in Malaysia this year, with a total investment of over 5 billion yuan. Guoxuan High Tech is also discussing the possibility of establishing a battery assembly plant in Malaysia with the local government.

In terms of materials, Enjie Co., Ltd., Kodali, and Shangtai Technology will also invest in the production capacity of separators, structural components, and negative electrode materials in Malaysia. The investment scale of the above-mentioned projects has reached the level of 1 billion yuan, reflecting the determination of lithium battery enterprises to increase production capacity layout in Southeast Asia.

At the same time, lithium battery companies are constantly accelerating the pace of improving their ability to supply localized power batteries in Europe.

Ningde Times has recently announced that its German factory will achieve break even within the year as planned with the increase in production capacity. The first phase of the Hungarian factory is advancing equipment installation and is expected to start production in 2025. In September of this year, the company officially launched its second European factory in Hungary, which will add another 100 GWh of production capacity after completion.

Yiwei Lithium Energy, Vision Power, China Innovation Airlines and Xinwangda also welcomed new progress in battery capacity layout in Türkiye, Spain, Portugal, Hungary and other places in Europe this year.

Among them, EVE Energy recently mentioned that its supply chain system is also accelerating globalization with the layout of battery production capacity. The wet smelting project of laterite nickel ore invested by the company in Indonesia has been successfully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of about 120000 tons of nickel metal and about 15000 tons of cobalt metal, continuously improving the cost-effectiveness of its global production capacity.